NBA Matchup Projections – April 10
Of the 10 games played last night, eight were projected to be closely contested based on pre-game odds, with only Thunder–Suns and Warriors–Spurs standing out as clear mismatches. The model correctly called 6 of those 8 competitive matchups, performing well where the margins were tightest. The biggest surprise of the night came in San Francisco, where the Spurs stunned the Warriors despite Golden State entering as a -1700 favorite.
The below graph is a breakdown of predicted vs. actual points, following that are tonight’s predictions.
Projected Scores and Win Probabilities:
