(Perfect 8-for-8 Start) Predicting the NBA Playoffs Using Machine Learning
This post is a follow-up to my original playoff forecast.
At the beginning of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, I published a full postseason forecast using a machine learning model I built. Across 10,000 playoff simulations, the model dynamically adjusted for each series outcome, updating rest advantages, momentum, team Elo, and matchup context to reflect the evolving postseason landscape.
Simulated Bracket at the Start of the Playoffs
I wasn’t sure how well my playoff model would perform. Unlike my regular-season model, which I’ve been able to tweak and refine continuously throughout the year, I built this one in isolation, with no opportunity to adjust it as results came in.
One of my biggest uncertainties was the decision to train the model exclusively on playoff data, rather than a combination of playoff and regular season games. The tradeoff was clear: by using only playoff games, I had to go much further back in time to gather enough data, which naturally introduces the risk that older games reflect a different version of the sport. On the other hand, the regular season can feel like an entirely different game, played at a different pace, with different rotations, and often different levels of intensity.
Despite that uncertainty, the results so far have been very encouraging. The model correctly predicted all 8 first-round series, including four that oddsmakers saw as toss-ups. Notably, it favored both the Timberwolves and Nuggets, even though they entered their series as betting underdogs.
Updated Forecasts and First-Round Recap
I've included updated forecasts for the Conference Semifinals and Finals that take into account results from the first round. Below that is a brief recap of all eight first-round series from my perspective.
West
70% OKC vs. DEN 30%
52% MIN vs. GSW 48%
East
67% CLE vs. IND 33%
81% BOS vs. NYK 19%
Three of the four series still align with my original projections; however, my model now gives the edge to the Timberwolves. This shift is likely due to how the first-round results played out. My model had projected the Warriors to beat the Rockets in fewer games and expected a closer series between the Timberwolves and Lakers. It also viewed both the Wolves and Lakers as favorable matchups for Golden State. With the outcomes reversed, it makes sense that the model now favors Minnesota. They beat the Lakers in dominant fashion and will enter the next round with a rest advantage.
Hopefully it is wrong and my original bracket stays alive…
🏆 Championship Odds
Boston Celtics: 27.6% — ↑ 10.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder: 22.8% — ↑ 8.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers: 14.5% — ↑ 3.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves: 11.9% — ↑ 4.1%
Golden State Warriors: 8.6% — ↑ 0.7%
Denver Nuggets: 7.0% — ↓ 1.6%
Indiana Pacers: 4.7% — ↑ 1.5%
New York Knicks: 2.9% — ↓ 1.4%
[OKC] Thunder vs. [MEM] Grizzlies
Model Prediction: Thunder 89% – Grizzlies 11%
Result: Thunder in 4 ✅
After two dominant home performances from the Thunder, the Grizzlies came out with everything they had and built an impressive 26-point halftime lead in Game 3. However, an injury to Ja Morant shifted the momentum in the Thunder’s favor as they stormed back and eventually closed out the series 4-0.
[CLE] Cavaliers vs. [MIA] Heat
Model Prediction: Cavaliers 83% – Heat 17%
Result: Cavs in 4 ✅
Not much to say about this series, the Cavs decimated the Heat, outscoring them by a historic 122 points over four games. Donovan Mitchell had a strong start to the playoffs, averaging 23.8 points per game, with notable contributions from Ty Jerome, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.
[HOU] Rockets vs. [GSW] Warriors
Model Prediction: Rockets 43% – Warriors 57%
Result: Warriors in 7 ✅
This series quickly turned into a low-scoring but highly entertaining slugfest, defined by four major momentum swings. After Game 1, it looked like the gap in experience and offensive firepower would be too much for the Rockets to overcome. But after Jimmy Butler went down with an injury in Game 2, the Rockets responded with a dominant performance. Jalen Green led the way, temporarily silencing the doubters with a 38-point masterclass—before quickly proving them right again.
With Butler still out in Game 3, it seemed like the Rockets might carry that momentum forward and take control of the series. Instead, the Warriors took both Games 3 and 4 despite Butler’s absence. Gary Payton II delivered an explosive fourth quarter in Game 3, and Brandin Podziemski followed with a huge 26-point performance in Game 4, helping the Warriors build what appeared to be an insurmountable 3–1 lead.
Out of nowhere, Fred VanVleet caught fire, hitting an incredible 18 of 27 three-pointers over Games 4 through 6. He also brought the composure that the young, inexperienced Rockets needed, helping lead them to two convincing wins and forcing a Game 7. Alongside him, Amen Thompson stepped up with impressive two-way play, further showcasing his potential and giving Rockets fans a glimpse of a very bright future.
In the end, the Warriors’ experience prevailed. Buddy Hield scored a playoff career-high 33 points to keep Golden State in control, and Steph Curry closed the door with a dominant fourth quarter to seal the series.
[BOS] Celtics vs. [ORL] Magic
Model Prediction: Celtics 88% – Magic 12%
Result: Celtics in 5 ✅
The banged-up Celtics handled the Magic in a very physical series that saw Jayson Tatum injure his wrist and Jrue Holiday strain his hamstring. Jaylen Brown stepped up with a crucial 36-point performance in Game 2 during Tatum’s absence, playing at an elite level despite dealing with a knee issue. I agree with my model’s projection that the Celtics are the title favorites. I don’t believe the Cavaliers or Thunder pose as much of a threat as their regular-season records suggest. If Boston stays healthy, I’m confident they can repeat as champions.
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero had a fantastic series. If the Magic can build the right roster around them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a deep playoff run in the next few years.
[LAL] Lakers vs. [MIN] Timberwolves
Model Prediction: Lakers 46% – Timberwolves 54%
Result: Timberwolves in 5 ✅
Ant-Man, Batman, Superman… Wolves in five. This series exposed some serious holes in the Lakers' roster while also highlighting the Timberwolves as a legitimate title contender after a relatively quiet regular season. Nobody disputed that the Lakers lacked a true center heading into the postseason, but after securing the third seed and playing solid basketball down the stretch, it didn’t seem to matter much. Going into the series, any argument in favor of the Timberwolves was often met with, “No way Luka and LeBron lose in the first round.”
But with Anthony Edwards playing at an MVP level, a healthy Julius Randle, and a strong supporting cast, the Timberwolves closed it out in five. I don’t think Lakers fans should be too worried. Austin Reaves went ice cold, and even so, the series was closer than the 4–1 result suggests. Make a few smart offseason moves, give Luka someone he can lob it to, and I think the Lakers will be back stronger next year.
[NYK] Knicks vs. [DET] Pistons
Model Prediction: Knicks 56% – Pistons 44%
Result: Knicks in 6 ✅
I was surprised that my model only gave the Knicks a 56% chance of winning this series, as I expected there to be a clearer gap between the two teams. Cade Cunningham took his game to another level this regular season, and that carried over into the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Pistons, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns showed their experience down the stretch, closing out several tightly contested games.
[DEN] Nuggets vs. [LAC] Clippers
Model Prediction: Nuggets 51% – Clippers 49%
Result: Nuggets in 7 ✅
“If you like basketball, like a really true fan of basketball — not like fame basketball, like really, like details stuff — I think this is the games that you should watch.”
– Nikola Jokić
In my opinion, this was the best first-round series by far. It was high-level basketball at its finest: physical, tactical, and competitive from start to finish, with two elite duos going head to head in a true chess match. Every game felt meaningful, with momentum constantly shifting and both teams making tough in-game adjustments.
My model projected this series to be about as close as it gets, so a Game 7 outcome came as no surprise. The Nuggets took control in the final game, with six different players scoring in double figures. Unfortunately for Denver, their reward for surviving that battle is a second-round matchup against a rested and confident Thunder team just two days later.
As for the Clippers, it is hard not to start asking difficult questions. They have now had four first-round exits, one trip to the conference semifinals, and one conference finals appearance over the last seven seasons. James Harden’s Game 7 struggles continued, turning in another underwhelming performance when it mattered most.
And then there is the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trade. With SGA now an MVP candidate leading the number one seed in the West, that trade is starting to look like one of the worst in modern NBA history.
[IND] Pacers vs. [MIL] Bucks
Model Prediction: Pacers 55% – Bucks 45%
Result: Pacers in 5 ✅
Tyrese Haliburton looked as sharp as ever, leading the Pacers to a 4–1 series win over the Bucks in what turned out to be a statement performance for Indiana. Giannis Antetokounmpo did everything he could to keep Milwaukee alive, including a 30-point, 20-rebound, 13-assist performance in Game 5, only to come up short once again. Damian Lillard had just returned after missing over a month due to deep vein thrombosis, only to suffer a torn Achilles early in Game 4.
It’s safe to say this just wasn’t the Bucks’ year. With Giannis likely to move on this summer, the focus shifts to what Milwaukee can do with the players and picks they receive in return.
Thanks for reading. I’ll have more playoff content coming soon, including game analysis and updated predictions. If you enjoyed this post, consider subscribing so you don’t miss the next one.
