Predicting the Entire NBA Playoffs Using Machine Learning

Predicting the NBA Playoffs is always a challenging task—especially in a year like this, where the matchups are tight and there's no clear favorite. While my regular-season model has achieved over 80% accuracy during the period I’ve tracked it, I chose not to use it here. That model relies on features relevant to the regular season that don’t translate well to the postseason.

Instead, I built a custom playoff model trained exclusively on historical playoff data, using features tailored specifically to the postseason, including:

• Current series score

• Whether a team can be eliminated or advance

• Result of the previous game

• Total games played (to account for rest or fatigue between series)

• And more

To simulate the full postseason accurately, I created a system that dynamically updates these features as the simulation progresses. For example, in a simulated run where the Thunder sweep the Grizzlies, the model adjusts for their updated Elo, win streak, rest advantage, and more when facing their next opponent (e.g., the Nuggets or Clippers).

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Pre-Playoff Elo Ratings

Because Elo plays a key role in the model’s predictions, here are the Elo ratings heading into the playoffs:

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Simulation Results

After 10,000 simulations, below is the predicted bracket.

The numbers behind the first round predictions are as follows:

West

89% OKC vs. MEM 11%

51% DEN vs. LAC 49%

54% MIN vs. LAL 46%

57% GSW vs. HOU 43%

East

83% CLE vs. MIA 17%

88% BOS vs. ORL 12%

56% NYK vs. DET 44%

55% IND vs. MIL 45%

🏆 Championship Odds

Boston Celtics: 16.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder: 14.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers: 11.3%

Denver Nuggets: 8.6%

Los Angeles Clippers: 8.4%

Golden State Warriors: 7.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves: 7.8%

Los Angeles Lakers: 7.5%

New York Knicks: 4.3%

Houston Rockets: 3.9%

Indiana Pacers: 3.2%

Milwaukee Bucks: 2.3%

Detroit Pistons: 1.4%

Memphis Grizzlies: 0.9%

Orlando Magic: 0.5%

Miami Heat: 0.3%

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Non-Elo Simulation:

Curious about the influence of Elo on the playoffs, I reran the simulations with Elo completely removed. This version relied purely on playoff-specific features and advanced player/team stats.

The result? A surprising highlight: the Clippers emerged as a dark horse contender for the Finals.

• They still only beat the Nuggets in 49% of simulations

• However, in the simulations where they advanced to the second round, they reached the Conference Finals 58% of the time—compared to the Elo-based model, where the Thunder were heavily favored in that matchup

• Once in the Conference Finals, they advanced to the Finals in 61% of those runs

However, the model shows that if the Clippers do manage to reach the Finals, their chances drop again—winning the championship only 42% of the time overall. If they face Boston specifically, their win probability falls to just 37%, making the Celtics a particularly tough matchup in this hypothetical run.

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Thank you for reading! I’ll be posting daily match predictions throughout the playoffs starting tomorrow — subscribe to stay updated.