Predicting the NBA Playoffs Using Machine Learning: Conference Finals Projections and Title Odds

This is the third installment in my ongoing playoff prediction series, the prior posts can be found here:

Predicting the Entire NBA Playoffs Using Machine Learning

(Perfect 8-for-8 Start) Predicting the NBA Playoffs Using Machine Learning

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For those new to the series, at the beginning of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, I published a full postseason forecast using a machine learning model I built. Across 10,000 playoff simulations, the model dynamically adjusted for each series outcome, updating rest advantages, momentum, team Elo, and matchup context to reflect the evolving postseason landscape.

The first round went perfectly, my model correctly predicted all eight series, and I entered the conference semifinals confident that the second round would follow suit. Unfortunately, that didn’t last. Two major upsets followed, with the Knicks and Pacers defying expectations to advance.

As shared in my last post, these were my model’s projections heading into the second round:

West

70% OKC vs. DEN 30% ✅

52% MIN vs. GSW 48% ✅

East

67% CLE vs. IND 33% ❌

81% BOS vs. NYK 19% ❌

One interesting note: when I first ran my model at the start of the Playoffs, it projected a Timberwolves–Warriors matchup in the conference semifinals and had Golden State advancing. But after the first round concluded and I reran the model, the prediction flipped, this time giving the Timberwolves a slight edge.

That shift says a lot about how the model accounts for both performance and fatigue. Minnesota was rewarded for the dominant way they handled the Lakers, while the Warriors were penalized for needing seven games to get past the Rockets. Of course, things might have played out differently if Curry had been fully healthy, but it’s a good example of how postseason dynamics can swing projections, even in close matchups.

Conference Finals Forecast (10,000 Simulations):

🏆 Championship Odds:

Oklahoma City Thunder: 51.4%

Indiana Pacers: 17.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves: 17.3%

New York Knicks: 13.5%

After including the Finals in the simulation, the Thunder have unsurprisingly emerged as the clear title favorites, winning in 51.4% of all runs. The Pacers and Timberwolves have nearly identical championship probabilities (17.8% and 17.3%, respectively), but achieved through different paths. Indiana reached the Finals in 55.6% of simulations, while Minnesota did so in only 32.7%, implying that the Timberwolves have a much higher conditional win rate once they reach the Finals. This suggests Minnesota is stronger head-to-head against Eastern Conference opponents, even though they are less likely to get there. Based on overall title equity, the implied power ranking is: Thunder > Timberwolves > Pacers > Knicks. Regardless of outcome, my model favors the Western Conference representative in the Finals.

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